Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 52033.815067 55175.944341 58326.843711 61721.008777 65271.308245 68872.671172 72799.414324
2024-10-13 46827.875524 51604.110137 56537.877778 62006.801194 67890.786702 74022.532828 80887.105562
2024-10-20 42962.783431 48814.906557 55003.180650 62017.250771 69728.970408 77931.731221 87298.683805
2024-10-27 39829.707547 46445.615497 53581.143497 61820.879261 71044.029135 81020.476088 92597.673911
2024-11-03 38066.860519 45388.763630 53419.897749 62840.947188 73546.024817 85288.121140 99096.459085
2024-11-10 36434.380557 44330.369631 53124.320976 63587.138161 75636.366449 89017.190582 104937.685784
2024-11-17 34797.967442 43148.034084 52580.737921 63951.265995 77208.027070 92096.881990 110000.653822
2024-11-24 33123.304802 41819.082636 51775.726765 63926.849750 78258.169218 94524.085464 114277.263541
2024-12-01 31799.624783 40829.794738 51299.887038 64224.249927 79630.162314 97284.742573 118917.238653
2024-12-08 30455.062791 39746.069188 50649.774617 64257.476136 80642.938600 99592.257185 123008.605668
2024-12-15 29690.699800 39326.183492 50758.687598 65167.520261 82675.615298 103088.671260 128504.089496
2024-12-22 28428.851214 38235.410549 50002.988883 64984.649510 83357.935638 104957.594578 132055.725440
2024-12-29 27827.587679 37959.612235 50244.817499 66030.902208 85554.753936 108680.062001 137892.611527
2025-01-05 26992.583270 37354.660491 50052.184150 66521.404637 87063.789044 111579.346733 142761.707807
2025-01-12 26005.888781 36515.353873 49530.854842 66571.129315 88006.172170 113778.657113 146783.141570
2025-01-19 24968.185958 35569.536920 48838.094164 66371.194416 88610.542434 115546.619457 150271.059622
2025-01-26 24564.539737 35435.176107 49165.061344 67452.406163 90814.060335 119286.437179 156198.863669
2025-02-02 24060.744871 35146.005808 49274.675778 68242.356603 92644.485831 122568.601146 161578.974994
2025-02-09 23415.211205 34642.209159 49084.092257 68627.706614 93949.939325 125194.921560 166154.188651
2025-02-16 22635.164396 33928.854992 48594.086627 68601.886882 94712.831174 127132.864723 169871.092701
2025-02-23 22032.183159 33436.102549 48376.745901 68916.549924 95903.031067 129606.023065 174267.579116
2025-03-02 21349.845344 32810.538481 47961.524262 68951.704033 96717.500470 131597.027067 178059.079240
2025-03-09 21055.229423 32714.296824 48248.790360 69914.457099 98741.958812 135137.801072 183836.979983